Best Stake Dice Strategies compared for 2021

Stake Dice strategies and gambling strategies in general may be quite useful when serving a certain purpose, such as wagering or maximizing the potential profit considering a casinos house edge.

Since casinos such as Stake apply a static house edge on their games, it is possible to compose certain dice strategies that mathematically maximize the casinos house edge, as well as such that minimize it, which should be the goal of every player.

In the following, we will look at the maths behind the "best dice strategy" compare both famous as well as unknown dice strategies, and see why the most intuitive ones actually may result in the worst statistical profit potential.

Note: Even though the Stake casino's Dice game was chosen for this article, the same mathematics and thus strategies apply to the Dice games of many other casinos that apply a static house edge to their games.

Mathematics behind Dice Strategies

In order to calculate which dice strategy can be considered the best one, one has to take into account, how the house edge of the casino is applied to the gambling odds.

On the Stake casino, there is a static 1% house edge applied to all bets.

In order to apply this 1% house edge, Stake uses this formula that reduces the winning multiplier by 1%:

f(x)=(µ/x)-(µ/x)/µ

x = displayed winning chance, e.g 90% => x=90

µ = bet size in dollars

y = bet multiplier on win

On the other hand, a fair game with 0 house edge would follow this function for the calculation of the multiplier:

f(x)=µ * 1 / (x / µ)

Now, in order to find the mathematically "best dice strategy", one has to check how significant the impact of the 1% static house edge is for the profit of all available dice settings on Stake.

For this, we will replace µ with 100 to simulate a player betting $100 and see, for which dice setting Stake takes the biggest commission of our total win.

This 1% commission impact for a player betting $100 each possible dice setting can be achieved with the following function:

f(x)=(100 (100 / x - 100 / x / 100) - 100) / (100 * 1 / (x / 100) - 100)

The function describes how much % of your deserved profit you receive in relation to your winning chance after Stake's house edge of 1% takes effect.

y = 1 means that you receive 100% of your deserved win, which is never the case because Stake has a 1% static house edge. Meanwhile y = 0.5 means that you only get half of your deserved win.

Here is the plotted function, that clearly shows that the higher your winning chance is, the more Stake takes from your winning:

This is the reason why you cannot bet on over 98%, because Stake's formula would fall apart to the point where you would win very low or even negative money amounts, which obviously makes no sense.

Based on the function, one one can see that Stake's claim of a 1% house edge on the dice game is false, because Stake applies their house edge to the winning multiplier and not to the profit, which means that in the worst case (98% winning chance) Stake takes up to 50% of your total profit.

Best Stake Dice Strategies

A Stake dice strategy that maximizes profit, must be one with a relatively low dice winning chance (roughly 0.01%-60%), since only then Stakes static 1% house edge doesn't take effect that much as with higher winning multipliers.

From a statistical perspective, a dice strategy with a 0.01% win chance would have the highest chances for profit as seen in the function plot above, but would be too volatile and would most likely need millions of bets to show any effect.

Hence, we will look at a few good dice auto-bet strategies with a dice winning chance between 0.1%-60% or slightly above, that perform pretty well and are not all too volatile. Additionally, we are going to uncover the worst strategies that you should avoid afterwards as well.

The interval of [0.01;0.6] is only a rule of thumb. It is clear that already before 0.6 (60%) Stake's house edge takes into effect quite a lot. Hence, one could easily lower the interval too.

Example of a good Dice Strategy

As mentioned already, we will look at an exemplary Stake dice strategy with a relatively low dice winning chance, which will maximize our profit potential while maintaining a moderate volatility.

• Bet Amount: 1/1000 or 1/500 of your balance
• Win Chance: 10%
• On Win: Reset
• On Loss: Increase by 10.1%

With a bet of 1/1000 of your balance (e.g 10 cents at a $100 balance), this strategy has a total loss chance of around 0.06%, so you can easily upper your bet amount to 1/500, 1/400, 1/300 [...] of your total balance if you have nothing against a slightly higher risk of losing everything.

As long as your dice winning probability is set relatively low (0.01-60%, the lower the better), you can modify these strategies so they fit your needs. In the end, only the set winning probability matters profit-potential-wise, not the the autobetting details of the dice strategy.

Example of a bad Dice Strategy

The low risk dice strategy is one of the most frequently chosen dice auto bet strategies on Stake when it comes to wagering.

Yet, this dice strategy is mathematically the worst possible dice strategy with an effective house edge of 50%, which can be seen at the function plot shown above.

This Stake dice strategy may look like this:

• Win Chance: 98.00%
• Bet Amount: 1/1000 or 1/100 of your balance
• On Win: Reset
• On Loss: Increase by 1000% or 100%

The reason why this stake dice strategy is so bad, can be visualized by using the 3 formulas defined above:

In this case, we use x = 98 since we have a 98% winning chance. The "Stake-formula" returns a multiplier of 1.0102, while the "fair-formula" returns 1.0204.

Hence, with a $100 bet on Stake one would profit around $1 even though the fair payout would be around $2, which is an effective commission of 50%.

When considering this and the function plot above, it is clear that very high winning-chance dice strategies are the worst possible stake dice strategies on Stake, and hence are not recommended at all, even though many players use them and falsely believe they still only have a house edge of 1%.

A better wager Dice Strategy

The Stable wager dice strategy is not as good for making profit, but since it hits pretty often and has a low chance of total loss, it's quite decent for wagering.

This Stake dice strategy is may not be the mathematically best one for making profit as it is outside of the earlier mentioned rule-of-thumb 0.01-60% interval, but as long as you do not let it run for all too long, it should serve as a good way of wagering or generating small constant profits.

• Win Chance: 79.2%
• Bet Amount: 1/365 of your balance
• On Win: Reset
• On Loss: Increase by 300%

With a bet of 1/365 of your balance, you can lose a total of 6 times in a row before losing your entire balance, which only has a chance of around 0.008%

In case you want to aim for higher gains, you can increase the bet to around 1/200 or even 1/150 of your total balance.

Low Chance Dice Strategy

The Low Chance Stake dice strategy is mathematically one of the better dice strategies but a more risky and volatile strategy, which is good if you're trying to make profit instead of wagering over a long period of time.

• Win Chance: 2%
• Bet Amount: 1/4000 of your balance or higher
• On Win: Reset
• On Loss: Increase by 2.0202%

If you aim to make big gains, you can increase the bet size, but keep in mind that this dice strategy already has a 1% chance of a total loss because of how low the chance to hit a win is.

Conclusion

Dice strategies on the Stake casino can indeed be a good tool for a certain purpose, but one cannot forget that all casinos apply a house edge to their games, which will always cause you as the player losing money in the long run.

Yet, when comparing the mathemaical probabilities of all dice strategies, it is obvious that most of them do not increase your winning chance, and in the worst-case even lower your overall RTP as Stake applies a static 1% edge to all dice games.

From all Stake dice strategies, those with a win chance of around 0.01-60% are the most that can maximize ones profit.

The higher your set dice winning chance is, the higher Stake's house edge takes info effect, which lowers your profit up to 50% at a winning chance of 98%.

Hence, when considering trying out a new dice strategy, always make sure to chose those with a relatively low winning chance, as those are the only ones that can maximize your profits.

If you would like to find out more details about the Stake casino, consider reading our up to date Stake Review for a quick overview of all of the Stake casino's games, features and perks.